Antimony prices have continued to rise this year. On March 10, according to the news released by the Antimony Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, the average price of 99.65% purity antimony ingots broke through 180,000 yuan/ton, up 10,000 yuan/ton from the previous quotation day (March 6).
At the same time, due to the sharp rise in the prices of minor metals such as antimony, the minor metal sector has also become the focus of the market. Since March, the stock prices of many antimony-related stocks such as Tibet Huayu Mining Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Huayu Mining"), Hunan Gold Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Huannan Gold"), and Guangxi Huaxi Nonferrous Metals Co., Ltd. have continued to strengthen.
Market supply exceeds demand?
Antimony is called "industrial MSG" and is often used as an additive in industrial manufacturing. It is understood that the downstream demand for antimony in China mainly includes 43% flame retardants, 30% photovoltaic ultra-white glass, 14% polyester catalysts and 11% alloy applications.
Zhonghuan Company told the reporter of Securities Daily that the current round of antimony price increases is mainly due to supply contraction and demand expansion. Guo Yiming said that in terms of demand, demand in traditional fields has grown steadily, while demand in emerging fields such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and military industry has exploded; in addition, from the supply side, the decline in the grade of domestic antimony ore, environmental protection restrictions, and winter shutdowns in northern mines have led to limited supply.
The industry believes that the mismatch between supply and demand has led to a shortage of supply in the market, which has pushed up antimony prices. However, from the perspective of the market structure, Shandong Zhonghuan Company told the reporter of Securities Daily that since my country implemented the antimony export control policy in the second half of 2024, the domestic and foreign markets have shown a significant differentiation trend.
On August 15, 2024, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs jointly issued an announcement, deciding to implement export controls on some antimony and superhard material-related items, which will be officially implemented from September 15, 2024. On December 3, 2024, the Ministry of Commerce issued another announcement, in principle, not allowing the export of dual-use items related to gallium, germanium, antimony, and superhard materials to the United States.
"Domestically, antimony prices were once under downward pressure against the backdrop of inventory backlogs," Bu Yili told reporters. In the international market, prices continued to rise as China's antimony metal exports continued to tighten and supply shortages intensified. This significant price difference between domestic and foreign markets further drove up domestic antimony prices.
In addition, Chen Qiqi, an analyst at the Rare and Precious Metals Division of Shanghai Steel Union, told the Securities Daily reporter: "The core reason for the rise in antimony prices is the adjustment of sales strategies by upstream smelting companies. They generally show a strong reluctance to sell and have increased expectations for future price increases. This attitude directly led to a rapid increase in the overall price of antimony products."
Affected by the rise in antimony prices, many related companies have received attention. On March 11, Guangdong Feinan Resources Utilization Co., Ltd. responded to investors on the interactive platform that the company's resource products include electrolytic copper, zinc ingots, solder ingots, lead-antimony-bismuth alloys, gold ingots, silver ingots, palladium powder, etc. Among them, lead-antimony-bismuth alloys contain antimony and bismuth metals. At present, the corresponding income of antimony and bismuth metals accounts for a relatively low proportion of the company's income, less than 1%.
Antimony prices are expected to continue to rise
In 2024, antimony prices have maintained an overall upward trend. According to data from Sino-Foreign Exchange, the antimony price at the end of 2024 was 140,300 yuan/ton, while the price at the beginning of last year was only 81,300 yuan/ton, with an annual increase of 72%.
Since the beginning of this year, antimony prices have continued this upward trend. At present, the consensus in the industry is that antimony prices may continue to rise in the future.
Bu Yili told reporters that from the long-term trend analysis, antimony, as an important strategic metal, is irreplaceable in industrial production, and its global reserves are relatively limited. These fundamental factors determine that its price has a natural upward momentum. "Considering that the current supply and demand contradiction has not been effectively alleviated, and the price difference between domestic and foreign markets is still at a historically high level, it is expected that antimony prices will continue to rise in the short term."
A research report published by CITIC Securities shows that the "heat shrinkage and cold rise" and "difficult to recycle" characteristics of antimony are destined to make it a key "consumer metal" for new material characteristics. The development of industries such as artificial intelligence, new energy vehicles, and photovoltaics cannot be separated from "antimony" metals. According to the relatively cautious demand growth assumption, the gap between antimony supply and demand in the past two years is more than 20%, and antimony prices may continue to rise.
Guo Yiming also analyzed from the supply and demand side that in the short term, the supply of northern mines may be slightly alleviated, and antimony prices may fall slightly, but they will continue to rise driven by the supply and demand gap and the price difference between domestic and foreign markets; in the medium and long term, the demand growth in new energy, semiconductors and other fields and the scarcity of antimony resources may keep the overall upward trend.